Our group of actuaries, epidemiologists and longevity specialists have established a COVID-19 forum for actuaries/others to learn, educate, inform and influence in a positive/ constructive way. Our frequent Bulletins address many aspects from demography, epidemiology, public health and societal impact
Actuarial chain ladder techniques from general insurance allow us to predict the number of deaths that occurred on any day from those reported each day. Combining NHS England data with international estimates of deaths outside hospital, the number of UK deaths that should be attributed to COVID-19 was over 40,000 on 30 April.
Using today's data set from NHS England, deaths in hospital have been falling consistently since 8 April. More recent data from ONS suggests the peak outside hospitals may be at least a week later.